Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on January 12, 2023.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders– These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 26 leave application decisions coming out on January 12, 2023. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 26 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Cases to Watch

Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd v PetroFrontier Corp., et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 53% chance of getting leave.

Possible Contenders

His Majesty the King v M.M.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 23% chance of getting leave.

N.S. v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

Fareed Pirani, et al v Haider Pirani, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Matthew Lloyd McKnight v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Wayne Banh v Amber Danica Melvie Chrysler

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

David Badaro c Sa Majesté le Roi

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

David Thomas v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Akelius Canada Ltd v 2436196 Ontario Inc.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Dwayne Campbell v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Harry Gefen v Henia Gefen in her Personal Capacity and as Estate Trustee of the Estate of Elias Gefen, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Franck Yvan Tayo Tompouba c Sa Majesté le Roi

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Marcia Motayne v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

C.B. v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Preston Darnell Scott v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Cameron Bounthieng Kinnavanthong v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Michel Faullem c Procureur général du Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Collin Paul Noskiye v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Rebecca Marie Ingram v His Majesty the King in Right of the Province of Alberta, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Mirna Montejo Gordillo, et al v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

2285754 Ontario Inc., et al v 1504641 Ontario Inc., et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Huu Nghia Vuong v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Eric Redmond v Director of Authorizations for the Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Ahmed Bouragba v Ontario College of Teachers

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Ramlal Hemchand v Toronto Community Housing Corporation, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Xiaoli Lily Wang, et al v Government of Alberta

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.