Mexico: Más allá de las Reformas Energéticas

Last Updated: 23 September 2019
Article by Anthony Menzies

Han transcurrido dos años desde que se aprobaron las amplias reformas del mercado energético mexicano y se adjudicaron a Pemex, previamente un monopolio estatal, los permisos de exploración y producción que se le permitieron retener, un proceso conocido como Ronda Zero. Las reservas de hidrocarburos remanentes* están disponibles para los inversionistas privados en rondas de licitación, cada una consistente en varias etapas de subastas públicas.

La Ronda 1 de licitaciones ha tenido hasta ahora resultados mixtos, aunque se anticipa que los grandes productores estarán participando en la cuarta subasta, que consiste en contratos de exploración para diez bloques de aguas profundas, a ser adjudicados en diciembre de 2016. En paralelo con la cuarta subasta, Pemex ha anunciado que por primera vez en su historia llevará a cabo un proceso de licitación para el desarrollo del yacimiento Trion en el Golfo de México, con un estimado de 480 millones de barriles equivalentes de petróleo ubicados a más de 2,500 metros bajo el mar.

Las tres primeras subastas, consistentes en contratos E&P en aguas poco profundas y licencias de producción en tierra, fueron consideradas inversiones pequeñas por los grandes productores. Con la excepción de la tercer subasta (producción terrestre), los bloques de agua poco profunda no atrajeron ofertas. Esto pudo ser a consecuencia de que la tajada de utilidades del 40 por ciento requerida por el gobierno no tomó en consideración los factores económicos que afectan al petróleo pesado, y las reglas para participar en consorcios también fueron restrictivas.

Para promover aún más los sectores midstream y downstream en septiembre de 2015 México aprobó reglas que permiten la cotización en bolsa de infraestructuras específicas (proyectos activos) de fideicomisos por unidades conocidos como 'Fibra E'. La idea es permitir actores con restricciones de liquidez el monetizar activos generadores de flujos de efectivo, permitiendo la liberación de recursos para realizar más inversiones. Se anticipa que la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), quien es propietaria y opera la red de transmisión mexicana, será pionera en la estructuración de una Fibra E este año con la venta de líneas de transmisión valuadas en medio billón de USD.

Fuera del sector energético, el mismo esquema Fibra E también permite la monetización de concesiones en carreteras, vías férreas, puertos, aeropuertos, redes de telecomunicación, centros penitenciarios y agua que tengan cuando menos un plazo remanente de siete años. Para muchas empresas del sector infraestructura este mecanismo de financiamiento ofrece un salvavidas, porque de otra forma se les dificultaría participar en nuevos proyectos.

Estas novedades post-reforma están tomando lugar en una coyuntura donde existe volatilidad en el precio del petróleo, y en el que el peso mexicano está siendo utilizado para tomar posiciones de cambio cortas a manera de cobertura contra la volatilidad internacional, siendo los empréstitos en pesos percibidos más baratos en comparación con otras monedas. El peso es la moneda global más líquida entre los mercados emergentes, con USD135 billones cambiando de mano a diario y siendo comercializada 24/7.

*De las cuáles 977 MMbpce son reservas 1P, 4,419 son reservas 2P, 11,096 son reservas 3P y 89.4 billones bpce son reservas prospectivas.

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