In 2014 Vince Cable announced a £10m government fund available for trials of driverless cars on public roads, commencing on 1st January 2015. Further, in May 2012, Nevada granted its first license to Google's 'Self-Driving Car'. Impressively, by the end of FY14 the car had driven 700,000 miles without a single accident. Meanwhile, other countries have unveiled other plans to road test either state or privately owned AVs (Automated Vehicles) – for example Italy, Japan, Singapore and Sweden. Nissan and Volvo have announced that partial AVs will be in production by 2020, with full autonomy to follow. Tesla Motors has gone one step further, announcing that by 2016 they will be selling a vehicle that is 90% automated. However, the industry has a long way to go, with many serious problems to face before the widespread manufacture of the first automated vehicle.

The main benefits of automated transport are convenience, efficiency and safety. It is argued that the concept of 'platooning', where cars drive closer to each other with no increased risk, will allow a shorter journey time even considering lower speeds, boosting economic productivity and growth. A 2013 study by Morgan Stanley puts the economic gains in the US at a base case of $1.3 trillion a year in savings if AVs were adopted. Safety-wise, the ENO centre for transportation predicted in 2013 that with a 90% adoption rate of AVs, we would see 4.22 million fewer crashes and 21,700 lives saved. The report further states that the steadier speed will reduce emissions – a 20% reduction in acceleration variation will reduce emissions by 5%.

However, there is some way to go before driverless vehicles hit the mass market. They must integrate with traffic management systems, traffic lights, mapping software, parking spaces, pedestrians, cyclists and most importantly, other vehicles – this planning requires huge oversight and is a formidable task. Much of the required technology revolves around system interconnectivity – a common language needs to be developed so that these systems can interface with each other both safely and efficiently. Moreover, hardware costs remain high– a quality LIDAR (light detection and ranging) system costs between $30,000 and $85,000. Therefore, until total costs fall, demand and enthusiasm will be muted.

Furthermore, the necessary legislative due process for AV take up is substantial. In 2014 Lloyds of London suggested that the insurance risk would transfer from the consumer (currently responsible for 93% of crashes) to the manufacturer of the car, systems or infrastructure (depending on who is at fault). This large shift would undoubtedly translate to high industry resistance. Along the same lines, Governments would have a major facilitation role to play - this type of new legislation will need substantial national/international agreement to prevent delays and lawsuits. Software firms will equally need to beware of the substantial cyber threat – any security breach to remotely influence the speed or direction of AVs would be catastrophic. These threats will inevitably slow the progress of the development of AVs.

In conclusion, whilst the benefits of fully functioning AVs are clear, there are many hurdles to the process which need to be taken seriously. Namely, these include cyber security, legislative, environmental, design, financial, governmental, infrastructure, insurance and licensing issues. This will mean that before 2020 we are very unlikely to see any driverless cars in public bar small, select trials. The road to a driverless future is sure to be long and windy. 

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